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For Trading Jan 28th

For Trading January 28th
CORONA VIRUS CRUSH Massive “Quarantined”
Worst Day Since October
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market started off lower on Coronavirus concerns and by 9:45 we had made the low of the day -549. The semiconductor (SMH, index we were short) was one of the hardest hit index. While all the markets rallied, they also had a late move lower and the DJIA was -453.93 (1.57%), NASDAQ -175.60 (1.89%), S&P 500 -51.84 (1.57%), the Russell -18.09 (1.09%) and the DJ Transports, the biggest loser -263.99 (2.39%). It was a day dominated by the Coronavirus and reports of the growing number of deaths and of those affected. Personally, I don’t believe the current numbers and I think that when all is said and done, the real numbers will be 8 or 10 times what we’re hearing now. We had a position in the SMH puts, bought at $ .75 on Friday morning and then had to sell half 2 hours later on the 100% Up Rule, and sold the balance at prices between $3.95-$4.20. Market internals never really recovered in any significant way and finished roughly 3.5:1 on both the DJIA and the NAZ. NYSE volume was closer to 6:1 negative. The DJIA was 5:1 negative with the biggest losers AAPL-64, UNH -60, BA -44 and GS -30 DPs. WMT -10DPs was the only double-digit gainer.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: The only group that make the highlight reel were biotech that have a connection to either drugs, vaccines or screening tests for the virus. On Thursday I highlighted CODX for its 79% move up from a bit over $1.00. Today it continued closing $3.43 +1.55 (82.45%), the rest of the group that were up at the open included INO (also written up here) finishing $532 +1.08 (25.4%), Moderna (MRNA) $22.74 +1.62 (7.67%), NVAX, up from $5.75 to close the day $8.50 +.70 (8.9%), and the biggest winner and the “HOMERUN OF THE DAY,” Cleveland Bio Labs (CBLI) which closed Friday $1.32 and traded as high as $5.16 and is trading $4.51 + 3.19 (242%). We went into the day with a put position in SMH that was originated Friday morning at $ .75, and we had to sell half @ $1.50 on our 100% Up Rule and today we sold them between $3.95 and $4.20. YTD is now +15.8%). Another group hurt by the virus is casinos. WYNN was trading over $153 a week ago and closed $123.89 -10.86 (8.06%), LVS has fallen from $74.59 to close $63.27 -4.58 (6.75%, and they weren’t the only group tied to these names, cruise and transportation were also weaker. Royal Caribbean (RCL) was $135 last week and closed the day $116.91 -9.60 (7.59%, NCL from $60 to close $54.16 -1.68 (3.01%) and the airlines, UAL from $90 to $77.63, American $29 to 26.11 and Delta (DAL) $62.48 to $56.83.
Whirlpool had earnings after the close and they beat on the top-line but had a slight miss on revenues. The stock has been trading on both sides of unchanged from the close and is currently $148.00 -.23
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with BIIB +3.00, ABBV +1.16, REGN -5.66, ISRG -22.71 (3.85%), MYL -.69, TEVA +.10, VRTX -1.69, BHC -.05, INCY -.67, ICPT -2.71, LABU -.65, and IBB $116.16 -.72 (.62%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -1.05, CGC -1.05, CRON -.30, GWPH -4.16, ACB -.09, PYX -.83, APHA -.37, ACRGF -.21, CURLF -.15, KERN -.37, and MJ $16.85 -.58 (3.33%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with no major moves and ITA $228.88 -2.90 (1.25%).
RETAIL was LOWER with the market and the only 2 names higher were discounters WMT +1.49 and TGT +1.43 and XRT $44.47 -.43 (.96%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -34.43, AMZN -30.64, AAPL -8.93, FB -2.82, NFLX -8.96, NVDA -10.68, TSLA -4.51, BABA -7.55, BIDU -3.72, BOX -.96, IBM -1.70, BA -6.38, CAT -4.49 and XLK $95.20 -2.33 (2.99%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -3.92, JPM -.80, BAC -.67, MS -1.26, C -1.66, PNC -1.85, AIG -.93, TRV -1.05, AXP -4.11 and XLF $29/.95 -.44 (1.45%).
OIL, $53.14 -1.05. Today’s action was a continued decline to $52.13 before a bounce up to close off the lows. The $52.00 area was support and we’ll have to see if it holds in the next few days. The stocks were LOWER with the XLE $55.27 -1.35 (2.38%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,577.40 +5.50 after breaking out “of the box” earlier last week, and the Iran news, we traded as high as $1,613 before turning down. I bought the GLD calls after we traded down to my area of support around $1,545 and after the small consolidation started higher. We ran into some excessive supply at $1,588 and turning back today. We bought the GLD 2/149 calls @ $1.10 and they closed $1.89 today.
BITCOIN: closed $8,995 +500. We broke to the upside today and managed a close on the highs. I now expect a test of $9,200 to $9,500. We own 750 GBTC with an average of $8.89. GBTC closed $9.85 + .37 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
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Review Of Hawaii And NCL's Pride Of America

I just got back and a friend who is taking the exact same cruise and is also cost conscious asked me to give him all my lessons learned. I figured you all might benefit even if some of this information isn't strictly about cruising. I'm going to ask my travel companions to review it (first time in Hawaii and first time cruising) to see if they have anything to add.

Getting There And Getting Around

Air Fare
With Southwest now offering tickets to Hawaii, I expect the competitive market to drop prices across the board but unless you are fortunate enough to live on the west coast in a city with flights that fly direct, air fare can be pricey. I had to get 4 people there round-trip (2 from rural Maine, 1 from Louisville Kentucky and 1 from the Baltimore/D.C. area). I ended up signing up for the Chase Sapphire credit card (annual fee waived for the first year) and the Alaska Airlines credit card that gave me a buy one/take one sign up offer. My total air fare cost was $2400. Besides the credit card, there was no secret other than monitoring the prices as far in advance as possible to see what typical prices are and then striking when there was a decent sale. I would also mention following Scott's Cheap Flights on the off chance a deal becomes available for when you were already planning on traveling.
Ground Transportation
We flew into Waikiki on Tuesday (cruise started on Saturday) so I got a rental car through Autoslash. The total cost for a mid-size for 4 days was $176 and ended up being from Alamo. While I feel this was a good deal as I had four people, if you're not 100% sure you will need it - you can probably get by with an Uber, taxi or even a hop on/off bus (see excursions later). Many excursions had an option for hotel pickup/drop-off.
Probably the best deal I found was Star Taxi which only charged $25 for up to 4 people one-way to/from the cruise terminal and not much more for other locations. Call 1 hour before you need the service.
Parking is EXPENSIVE so be sure to do a lot of research if you plan on renting a vehicle.


General In your mind, you have this idea of what Hawaii is going to be like. Oahu (specifically Honolulu/Waikiki) is not it. It is very over developed and crowded. Many places are run-down because investors have purchased the property but have chosen to wait until conditions are more favorable to develop. There is a very large homeless population in Hawaii overall but I was shocked by the number of shanty towns and abandoned vehicles doubling as homes I saw on Oahu.

Pride Of America

I have to be honest, this was hands down the most expensive cruise I have taken and it was the worst cruise ship. I had a great time but there was a lot left to be desired.
Update: One thing that really stood out as being a good thing is that the room had 3 US standard outlets!!!
Why Does It Cost So Much
Hint: You should get the NCL Mobile App. It includes dinner reservations, account charges, dinner reservations, deck plans, passenger to passenger chat for an additional fee ($10 vs Carnival's $5) and other nifty features.
I was astounded by the number of first time cruisers I saw (based on their ship card color). Because so many of the employees were American, I was also surprised by how many told me that they were on their first contract and wouldn't be back. The people (both employees and passengers) were incredibly friendly and most everyone seemed to be having a good time. I didn't see long lines at guest services. I mentioned earlier how this was the worst ship I had been on - and, while true, shouldn't give you the impression that I didn't have a great time. For my traveling companions, they had nothing to compare it to and other than the entertainment - they had no complaints at all and loved it.

Day 1 & 2 Maui (overnight)

If you have ever been on a Caribbean cruise and you didn't feel like paying for an expensive excursion you could always just walk off the ship and go to a beach or a shopping district or a friendly bar - something. This is not the case in Maui. Where the Pride Of America docks there is absolutely nothing (it took 10 minutes to walk out of the port with chained link fence on both sides only to end up about another 10 minutes away from a strip mall). I do want to point out that the strip mall did have a few artisans selling things out on the sidewalk but this was far from what you will be used to at other locations.
So what to do instead?

Day 3 Hilo Hawaii

This is the first of two days on the island of Hawaii and it is on the eastern (very wet) side of the island. Normally doing two excursions in one day is a not recommended. I would make an exception here because the Botanical Gardens are not to be missed. It is a short excursion (2.5 hours), is relatively inexpensive (you can even do it on your own) and is offered at multiple times allowing you to get another excursion in.

Day 4 Kona Hawaii

The other side of the island is a stark contrast to Hilo as it is dry/desert climate. It is the only tender port on the cruise. Unfortunately, we didn't fare very well here on excursions but shopping and beer was good.
It has been on my bucket list to be in a real submarine and go over 100 feet to below the surface to the ocean floor. That's what 3 of us did here in Kona and while I am glad that I can now say I have done it (105'), the experience itself was underwhelming. To not interfere with the wildlife, the sub doesn't use any artificial lights nor does anything to attract the fish to your windows. This means almost everything is a monochrome blue (the color red doesn't exist at this depth for instance). It's also nearly impossible to get nice photos out the windows even though they are clear enough - just not the right conditions. Now, I met a guest back on the ship that said he had a phenomenal time on a sub that wasn't sponsored through NCL but I'm not sure what it was.
The other guest in my party decided to go on the Gold Coast & Cloud Forest excursion and was also not impressed. The gold supposedly comes from the Hawaii state fish (yellow trigger fish also known as humuhumunukunukuāpuaʻa) but apparently they haven't been plentiful enough to turn the coast gold for years. She also said if she was a coffee drinker, she probably would have enjoyed it more (they are famous for their coffee).

Day 5 & 6 Kauai (Overnight)

Remember how I said you have this ideal image in your head of what Hawaii is and Oahu doesn't meet it. Kauai exceeds it - I fell in love and if I ever go back, I will just fly directly here and stay on this island - it is that good.
I am not going to suggest you do anything other than exactly what I did because I couldn't possibly imagine having a better time.
Now, there's more to the story than just these two excursions. First, since you're overnight you can stay out as late as you want. I asked our tour guide where an affordable place to get good beer close to the ship was. She recommended The Nawiliwili Tavern (or just the Tavern). It happens to be a 2 minute walk from one of the free shuttle stops and they have great pizza, beer and pool. Secret I learned this is also where a lot of the crew from the ship hang out after they get off at 9PM so if you want to have a real conversation and ask real questions - this is the place to do it. Once the bartender realized I was into craft beer and trying all they had, she told me about a brew pub not too far up the road that I really wanted to try but ran out of time.

Napali Coast (still day 6)

The cruise ship leaves port early (circa 2PM) and instead of heading to Honolulu backtracks around Kauai. There is a portion of the island that's only reachable by air (helicopter) or by sea (cruise ship) and I was fortunate enough to do both. Actually, our pilot said that a few of the beaches can be reached by a hiking 11+ miles but it isn't an easy hike. In any event, this is where the opening scenes of Jurassic Park were filmed if I remember correctly - utterly gorgeous. My pilot also let me in on a little secret - that the captain times the cruise ship to sunset when the coast is all lit up in spectacular colors so be out on deck with camera ready.

Day 7 - Honolulu (Pearl Harbor & City Tour)

I made a big mistake here. I booked a late flight so I could go to Pearl Harbor and then get dropped off at the airport. We had already done the Circle Island Tour and none of the other offerings were of interest. This was a mistake for two reasons.
Reason 1: Exhaustion
After having spent 5ish days in Waikiki and then taking a 7 day cruise, we were wiped out and really didn't have the stamina to really take it all in.
Reason 2: Airport
If you have a late flight home, I'm sorry. All of your checked bags have to be screened by agriculture (certain plants are not allowed to leave the state) which is airline specific and unless that airline is running flights all day (looking at you Alaska), then you will have to wait for them to open before you can even check in. While you wait, there is essentially no place to eat (Starbucks and a bar that serves hot dogs for $12.50 - yes, $12.50). I recommend you keep some food with you for this reason. They do offer a baggage hold service but the prices were ridiculous (4 checked bags for 24 hours was $100). Sorry if it seems like I am whining - it was the end of a long trip and I was returning to reality.

Update: Viator

In this post, I have provided a number of links to NCL's excursions, directly to the vendor and also to Viator. Viator is part of Tripadvisor and generally speaking, you can trust the reviews. On most of the bookings, you can cancel for a full refund up to 24 hours in advance. They are competitively priced and you can usually get a discount. For instance, new customers will get offered a 10% discount off their first purchase. Companies like Ebates and TopCashBack will offer an additional 3 to 6% cash back as well. Use a credit card that gives back 2-4% on travel and it can really reduce the price. I haven't had too much trouble figuring out what vendor was being used through Viator so you could just book with them direct too and just use them as a way to find fun things to do and use the reviews to distinguish between what's good and what's not.
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